City of near future room is stagnant, the room city that the person that buy a house looks forward to dies dish, house price steeps fall did not come from beginning to end however. Want to discuss house price to be able to drop, can drop, need combs these year of reason that house price rises. Price seeing a room rises drop, want to see reform of town housing system whether continue. Resemble change like bringing big ox city, the room changes to turn all demand to the market, the improvement that basically is urban former resident demand pushs tall house price. With change ” of “ great leap forward to differ, the house that advance gradually type pushs changes far did not end. Beijing major housing still is center delivery room, chinese major city, the dweller still is it is main living form with public house. Since 2008, the housing of each district builds what the program falls the key in housing to guarantee a system to build, this is necessary. Those who want an attention is, if housing safeguard broke away from the major premise that housing commercializes, it is impossible to solve that capital relies on finance. Accordingly, the house price of advance gradually type still can have to estate market urge action. In fact, since 2007, price of each town house rises drop have apparent law: High end serves the city that course of study collects, ab extra population is stable, house price rises steadily; Manufacturing industry collects a city, pass in and out of ab extra population suffers macroscopical economy to affect, the risk of short-term wave motion is big. Population of Shanghai census register 1300 much, ab extra population 500 much, practitioner of high-end service line of business is more, adopt commonly live oneself buy a house, demand is smoother; The city such as Beijing, Nanjing, Hangzhou belongs to this kind. Bead mouth of the bearer outside trigonometry is much, the proportion that needs the housing that rent is larger, need has investor to purchase much flatlet to be used at renting, house price is short-term and fluctuant big. In long triangle city, mouth of the bearer outside Suzhou 6.5 million, without stannum 2.6 million, changzhou 2 million, be close to 1/2, latter house price is adjusted apparent. According to a few research the report is forecasted, to 2025 scale can be close to urban population of China to exceed 70% even, total population of the city zone exceeds 1 billion. And have again like Beijing, Shenzhen, Shanghai such oversize city, possible meeting achieves 30 million above. City of Chinese mouth structure is changed, the likelihood still can divide a level, one is arrive from countryside city, the 2nd phase is the population density that reachs a suburban district from the urban district balanced change. The area of central the city zone fixed position is area of business affairs center and advanced shopping centre commonly, contemporary service line of business gathers, unit area land yields the cost is higher. However, living move often stays in this one area in great quantities population, this restricted the function of central the city zone badly to promote. District of this kind of city of distributinging structure of functional structure and population space asymmetrical condition, the sufficient play that limitted function of central the city zone and function of base of suburb manufacturing industry already, to industrial structure promotion of function of changeover, city reached progress of urban economy society to form severe refashion to make an appointment with. Those who realize population density is balanced in changing a course, inevitable meeting generates huge housing demand. Hope room city dies dish achieving certain goal thereby is unlikely to succeed. Estate bubble caused financial crisis really in a few countries and area, but, never a country and area, before financial crisis, development company is in wait-and-see condition with the person that buy a house. Financial crisis is to happen when thinking without the person house price and share price can drop almost. Current, catenary of development company capital ruptures, cause a large number of sodden poop deck, house price steeps fall, nobody buy a house, mortgage for, not be the desire of inflection point talking and promulgator of 100 days of great change talking absolutely, helpless also solve living problem truly at solving vast population.
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