One, appear on the market the necessity that the company has financial crisis early-warning
Financial crisis early-warning is a foundation with enterprise informatization, to the enterprise the potential risk in management activity undertakes real time monitoring. Its are perforative the whole process that runs an activity at the enterprise, it is a basis with the material is being managed related the etc of financial forms for reporting statistics of the enterprise, use money the many sided such as meeting, finance, business management is academic, use the method such as model of scale analysis, maths, go discovering the risk of business presence, the person that the dangerous situation that faces company place tells camp of already of look forward to beforehand and person of other benefit impact, the potential problem of the reason that analyses an enterprise to produce financial crisis and system of operation of company finance affairs, had done with in advance be on guard measure.
Compose builds an efficient, delicacy, economic financial early warning system very necessary. To appearing on the market the company, effective financial early-warning mechanism is helpful for managing authorities to find out issue crucial point in time, make correct management and financial policy, turn round adverse situation in time, prevent to be immersed in financial crisis or suffer the processing that retreat city. To the government character, effective financial early-warning can improve the macroscopical configuration of resource in time on certain level, reduce prospect of brim of financial to be in crisis, development poorer appear on the market the government of the company helps, be on guard state-owned property prediction of a person's luck in a given year, implementation resource optimizes configuration. To bank and load holder character, undertake seasonable and effective financial early-warning, whether can the bank borrow money in the decision or be when making loan control policy, the financial risk that through financial early-warning analytic system evaluates loan applicant or usurer place faces, in order to decide loan specified amount is spent; The load holder can understand place to invest the gold of company countervail repayment of capital, ability that pays interest according to forecasting a result. confrontation plan personnel, undertake to place audit firm financial early-warning can help his make the audit plan that has specific aim more, more careful ground executes audit order.
2, financial crisis early-warning is multivariate and logistic (Logistic) model
The target of multivariate and logistic model is the conditional probability that seeks observation target, the financial standing that judges observation object accordingly and management risk. This one model builds the base in function of accumulative total probability, do not need independent variable obedient and multivariate normal school and the condition with two across block equal covariance. Logistic model assumed the probability P(of business failure goes bankrupt take 1, blame go bankrupt take 0) , assume Ln[p/(1-P)] can use financial ratio linear to explain. Assume Ln[p/(1-p)] ＝ A Bx, derivation can reach P ＝ Exp(a Bx)/[1 Exp(a Bx)] is calculated thereby the probability that gives business failure. Differentiate method is above all the basis is multivariate and linear the Z value that sentences calm model to define business failure, next the conditional probability that derivation gives business failure. If P value is more than 0.5, the probability that demonstrates business failure is bigger, can decide the company is about to go broke: If P is worth under 0.5, the probability that shows company finance affairs is normal is bigger, can decide company finance affairs is normal. The biggest advantage of Logistic model is not to need strict hypothesis requirement, overcame linear equation to suffer the limitation that statistic restrains suppose, have wider suitable scope.
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